A growing consumer backlash in Canada and Mexico threatens the stability of U.S. grocery exports in 2025, according to a new dunnhumby study.
The tenth wave of the Consumer Trends Tracker, released in May, found that 71% of Canadian and 43% of Mexican shoppers plan to buy fewer U.S. grocery products next year. The finding underscores serious challenges ahead for U.S. grocery exports. Canada and Mexico are the two largest agricultural trading partners of the United States.
Tariffs and Political Tensions Fuel the Pullback
Consumers cite U.S.-imposed tariffs as the leading reason for turning away from American groceries. In Canada, 84% of respondents said tariffs were the top driver, followed closely by the broader political climate. Similar sentiments were reported across Latin America, including Brazil (79%), Chile (78%), Mexico (77%), and Colombia (76%).
“Canadians and Latin Americans are shifting their shopping behavior to spend their money where their values align,” said Matt O’Grady, president of the Americas at dunnhumby. “That has implications for all brands and retailers as they need to truly understand their customers to make sure they are living up to the standards expected of them.”
U.S. Grocery Exports Heavily Dependent on Regional Trade
The U.S. Department of Agriculture reports that in 2024, one-third of American agricultural exports, valued at over $58 billion, were sent to Canada and Mexico. These exports are a substantial component of the U.S.’s overall grocery exports. Meanwhile, these countries supplied 42% of U.S. agricultural imports, valued at $90 billion.
That trade relationship now faces disruption as nearly one in four Canadian and Latin American consumers say their reduced purchases from the U.S. will become permanent. For Canada alone, that could represent $15 to $20 billion in lost annual grocery purchasing power, directly hitting U.S. grocery exports.
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Shoppers Prefer Local and Discount Channels
The move toward local shopping is gaining momentum in Canada and Latin America. Nearly two-thirds of Canadian shoppers and over half of consumers in Mexico, Brazil, and Colombia stated that they intend to purchase more from domestic producers, further diverting demand away from U.S. grocery exports.
In contrast, only 30% of American consumers expressed similar interest in buying local.
Channel behavior is shifting too. In Canada, the percentage of households shopping at discount and dollar stores rose by 3% to 75%. Meanwhile, U.S. consumers showed a 4% rise in penetration of discount and dollar stores, reaching 57%. Although interest in bargain channels is growing, it has yet to translate into substantial shifts in actual purchases of U.S. grocery exports within the domestic market.
U.S. Consumers Respond Differently to Global Trade
While Latin American consumers aim at U.S. grocery exports, American shoppers show little interest in retaliating. Only 21% of U.S. respondents plan to reduce purchases from China, even though the country supplies less than 5% of America’s food imports.
The sentiment among U.S. consumers remains focused on price rather than national origin. That contrasts with the values-driven behavior in Canada and Latin America, where geopolitics and economic protectionism are reshaping grocery buying behavior and undermining demand for U.S. grocery exports.
Retailers Must Respond With Insight-Driven Strategy
Dunnhumby’s O’Grady urged retailers to adapt to this shifting landscape.
“Although consumers, retailers, and brands are navigating uncertain times, there are concrete steps all can take in the midst of this disruption,” he said. “For consumers, that may mean rapidly changing their behaviors to protect their wallets. But for retailers and brands, it means turning to data insights to determine which strategic actions they need to take to stay ahead.”
Understanding the future of U.S. grocery exports starts with recognizing these market dynamics.
Study Methodology and Scope
dunnhumby surveyed 8,500 grocery shoppers in April 2025 across six countries: Canada, Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, Chile, and the United States. The firm interviewed 1,000 to 2,000 individuals per country to identify evolving shopper perceptions, needs, and behaviors. The study complements dunnhumby’s Retailer Preference Index. As consumer sentiment shifts and purchasing patterns evolve, U.S. policymakers and grocery brands must prepare for lasting disruptions in U.S. grocery exports—and act accordingly.