U.S. online grocery sales are expected to grow more than five times faster than in-store purchases over the next five years, according to a new forecast from market research firm Brick Meets Click.
The firm’s U.S. Grocery Sales 5-Year Forecast (2025-29) anticipates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.9% for the online grocery segment, compared to 1.7% for in-store sales. By 2029, online purchases, including pickup, delivery, and ship-to-home services, will account for 17% of all U.S. grocery spending.
eGrocery Drives Half of Market Growth
As in-store sales slow, online grocery sales are expected to contribute nearly half of all new grocery dollars spent between now and 2029. That growth will accelerate year-over-year, with the online segment accounting for nearly 40% of 2025’s increase and more than 50% of the growth by 2029.
“In today’s market, Walmart and mass retailers dominate online grocery,” said David Bishop, partner at Brick Meets Click. “Walmart alone drives 40% of all eGrocery sales, and many grocers don’t even offer ship-to-home services, which are included in these projections.”
Annual eGrocery sales ended 2024 up more than 9% from the previous year. The gains were fueled largely by aggressive promotions in the second half of the year, which compensated for stagnant growth in the first six months. That upward momentum has continued into 2025, with delivery remaining the most significant driver of online growth.
Economic Pressures Could Shift Trends
Despite the positive trajectory, several macroeconomic and political factors could disrupt these projections. Brick Meets Click flagged changes in immigration policy, food-related inflation, and government assistance programs as major wild cards for both in-store and online grocery sales.
The report cites a decline in immigration under the current administration, mirroring policies from its earlier term. From 2017 to 2019, immigration dropped at a CAGR of 9%, excluding 2020 pandemic anomalies. If that trend continues, it could suppress eGrocery’s growth by 54 basis points over the next five years.
Likewise, new tariffs or shifts in trade policy could quickly alter consumer behavior, particularly by driving up the prices of groceries. Brick Meets Click forecasts grocery inflation will fluctuate between 2.7% and 1.2% annually through 2029. This estimate covers not just food but household supplies, pet products, personal care items, alcohol, and tobacco.
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SNAP Changes Could Alter Spending Habits
Pending legislation tied to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) also poses a threat to both online and in-store growth. Roughly 22 million U.S. households—17% of the population—received SNAP benefits as of January 2025.
Proposed policy changes could reduce payment levels, tighten eligibility criteria, or restrict the types of products recipients can purchase. Any of these moves could impact where, how, and what families purchase, according to the forecast.
“SNAP changes are a gray swan—plausible, but uncertain. If passed, they would have widespread effects on grocery patterns,” Bishop said.
Consumer Behavior Keeps Evolving
The pandemic dramatically accelerated online grocery sales, but convenience and cost continue to drive behavior in the post-COVID market. Before 2020, consumers turned to the internet to save time. During the pandemic, safety was the top priority. Today, it’s more about stretching every dollar while still saving time.
“Delivery and value formats like Walmart continue to benefit most from these shifting patterns,” Bishop said. “The disruption that began five years ago hasn’t gone away—and it won’t anytime soon.”
Strategic Insights for Online Grocery Sales
Brick Meets Click urges grocers to treat the national forecast as a benchmark rather than a definitive outlook. Regional dynamics—including competition, demographics, and infrastructure—can drastically influence local outcomes.
“Use this data to evaluate your own trade areas,” Bishop advised. “Understand your competition, your customer base, and how you can meet them where they are—online or in-store.”
The complete five-year forecast includes detailed breakdowns by service type and is available exclusively through Brick Meets Click’s full report.