Grocery purchasing power is finally climbing back, yet shoppers aren’t loosening their grip on the calculator. That’s the central finding of a new report from Acosta Group, a Jacksonville-based sales and marketing agency serving the food and consumer goods industries.
The company’s newly launched Acosta Group Affordability Tracker measures grocery affordability by comparing the cost of a typical stock-up trip against median hourly earnings in the U.S. The debut edition reveals a disconnect that could reshape how retailers and brands think about the year ahead: wages are catching up to prices, but consumer behavior hasn’t caught up to the good news.
A Stock-Up Trip Still Costs More
According to Acosta Group, its Typical Stock-Up Trip, an 84-item basket of common grocery and household essentials, now runs more than $366. That’s roughly 27% higher than the same basket cost in 2020.
Grocery affordability hit its lowest point in 2023, Acosta Group reports, and has been recovering since. Wage growth outpaced grocery inflation during stretches of that recovery, clawing back some of the purchasing power households lost during the inflationary surge.
Still, prices haven’t fallen; they’ve stopped rising as fast as paychecks. That distinction matters, and it’s shaping how shoppers approach the store.
Behavior Hasn’t Followed the Numbers Down
Here’s where the story gets interesting. Despite the affordability rebound, shoppers keep clipping coupons, chasing promotions, and scrutinizing every purchase with the same intensity they developed during the worst of the inflationary period.
That pattern breaks from history. In past economic recoveries, budget-driven habits tended to fade once conditions improved. This time, the data suggests something more durable has taken hold.
“The most important implication may be that improving grocery purchasing power alone does not appear to be reversing many of the shopping behaviors consumers developed during the inflationary period,” said Colin Stewart, EVP of Business Intelligence at Acosta Group. Consumers have adapted to a higher-price marketplace, he added, and those adaptations now look like they’re here to stay.
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Why the Recovery Is Slowing Down
Acosta Group’s tracker also flags a shift in momentum. The sharp affordability gains recorded between 2023 and 2025 appear to be leveling off, with the report predicting more incremental progress from here.
Meanwhile, grocery spending doesn’t happen in a vacuum. Housing, insurance, health care and transportation costs continue eating into household budgets, according to Acosta Group. This helps explain why many consumers still describe themselves as financially stretched even as their grocery dollars go further.
That broader financial pressure, more than the grocery aisle itself, may be what’s keeping value-seeking behavior locked in.
What It Means for Retailers and Brands
For supermarket operators and food brands, the takeaway is a reset in expectations. Waiting for shoppers to “snap back” to pre-inflation habits once prices stabilize no longer looks like a safe bet, based on Acosta Group’s analysis.
Instead, Stewart suggested that future growth will hinge on understanding how consumer expectations around value have permanently shifted. It will not depend on assuming a return to old spending patterns.
“As affordability continues to dominate conversations among consumers, retailers and policymakers alike, we wanted to step back and examine the issue through a different lens,” Stewart said, explaining the motivation behind the new tracker.
A Recurring Look at Purchasing Power
This inaugural report marks the first installment of what Acosta Group plans to build into an ongoing research series. Future editions will continue tracking affordability, purchasing power, and evolving value perceptions across the grocery landscape.
For an industry still navigating the aftershocks of the inflationary period, that kind of sustained measurement could prove valuable. It offers retailers and brands a clearer read on where consumer sentiment is actually headed, rather than where the raw numbers suggest it should be.