Circana’s latest Food and Beverage Outlook projects steady but modest growth for 2026, as value, health, and shifting demographics shape consumer behavior.
In its Circana Compass insights, the firm confirms that 2025 global retail food and beverage performance aligns with earlier forecasts. U.S. dollar sales are on track to rise 3.2% this year, fueled by a 3% price/mix increase and modest volume gains of 0.2%.
Rising cocoa and coffee costs have pushed up certain retail prices, but overall food price growth remains moderate. Retail volumes continue to inch upward, though more slowly than in 2024.
In the EMEA region, food and beverage sales are expected to climb 4% in value for the year. Private-label brands now account for 41% of sales, even with fewer promotions.
APAC’s market has grown 3.7% in value through midyear, with unit gains of 1.4%. Circana expects a shift from trading down to trading up in the year’s second half as economic conditions improve, especially in Australia.
2026 U.S. Food and Beverage Outlook: Prices Up, Volumes Tight
Circana notes that compounded inflation has pushed average U.S. food and beverage prices up 34% over the past five years. For 2026, the firm forecasts price/mix growth of 3% to 5%, supported by ongoing cost pressures, competitive pricing strategies, and targeted promotions.
Volume growth, however, is expected to remain narrow, between -1% and 1%. Consumers are embracing more value-driven and multifunctional eating habits, which could hold back unit growth despite overall sales increases.
As a result, U.S. dollar sales are projected to rise 3% to 5% in 2026, demonstrating continued sector resilience even as shoppers remain cautious.
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Consumers Redefine Value
Sally Lyons Wyatt, Circana’s global executive vice president and chief advisor, says shifting behaviors demand a new approach from brands.
“Consumers are prioritizing in-home food and beverage spending while redefining ‘value’ with an emphasis on convenience and functionality,” Lyons Wyatt said. “The CPG industry must strategically identify ways to stimulate demand and remain profitable.”
Circana’s data reveals that value has become increasingly personalized. Mass merchants, club stores, and value retailers continue to attract budget-conscious shoppers, while e-commerce gains momentum thanks to innovations from the most prominent players in retail.
Health and Wellness Gain Influence
Health-conscious purchasing patterns are reshaping the food and beverage sector. Many consumers are adopting higher-protein diets, cutting back on alcohol and snacks, and seeking premium products with functional, health-driven ingredients.
This wellness-driven shift presents opportunities for brands to align products with evolving nutritional preferences, particularly as more shoppers look for foods that support active lifestyles and long-term well-being.
Demographic Shifts Impact Demand
Circana’s outlook also identifies demographic changes as a significant factor in shaping category performance. Tighter budgets among low-income and Hispanic households are affecting spending patterns, while declining birth rates and slower immigration growth could dampen demand in specific categories over time.
Retailers and manufacturers will need to adapt product portfolios and marketing strategies to reflect these population shifts, particularly in urban markets where growth is slowing.
Data-Driven Guidance for a Competitive Market
Circana emphasizes that understanding the interplay of value, health, and demographics is critical for navigating the next phase of market evolution.
With modest sales growth expected through 2026, companies that can leverage data insights to meet changing consumer expectations will be better positioned to capture market share.