U.S. Latinos could become the driving force behind the next wave of Latin American trade, a corridor that moved about $1.5 trillion in goods and services in 2025. That is the key finding of new research from the McKinsey Institute for Economic Mobility.
For supermarkets and food companies, the stakes are high. Latino shoppers already shape what fills grocery carts nationwide. Meanwhile, Latino-owned importers, distributors, and brands bring cross-border knowledge that helps move products faster and more cheaply. Together, these strengths could turn a slowing trade corridor into a fresh source of growth for the U.S. food industry.
The report, released this month, puts a number on that potential. Better coordination of capital, distribution, institutions, and commercialization could add $170 billion to $295 billion in extra trade over the next decade. That would lift the corridor’s projected growth by 18 percent. Combined with expected momentum, total added trade could reach up to $2 trillion by 2035.
Why Latin American Trade Matters to Grocers
The U.S.-Latin America corridor ranks among the world’s largest trade relationships. Its 2025 volume equaled roughly 1.5 times total U.S.-Canada trade. Goods flow both ways, with about $779 billion heading north and $677 billion moving south. Mexico anchors the relationship, accounting for about 66 percent of corridor trade.
Food and beverage forms a meaningful part of that exchange. Two-way trade in the category reached about $77 billion in 2025, according to McKinsey. Latin America shipped roughly $48 billion in food and beverage products north, while the U.S. sent about $29 billion south.
However, growth will likely cool. Researchers project annual growth of 1.5 to 2 percent through 2035, down from about 3 percent in real terms over the past decade. That slowdown makes the Latino advantage even more valuable.
Latino Consumers Set the Pace
Latino buying power sits at the center of the opportunity. Roughly 68 million U.S. Latinos represent $2.8 trillion in household consumption. Their spending grew three times faster than non-Latino consumption from 2019 to 2024.
That demand reaches deep into imports. Latino-linked demand now drives about 15 percent of Latin American final-goods imports, up from 12 percent a decade ago.
Moreover, Latino favorites often cross over to mainstream shoppers. Modelo Especial’s U.S. off-premises retail sales climbed from around $2 billion in 2018 to more than $4 billion in 2024. During that span, non-Latino consumers grew from 30 percent to 45 percent of the brand’s business. Similarly, Tajín evolved from a niche seasoning into a pantry staple.
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Entrepreneurs Bring a Competitive Edge
Latino business owners add a second engine. The number of Latino-owned firms with employees grew about 6.8 percent annually from 2017 to 2023. By comparison, non-Latino-owned employer firms grew less than 1 percent a year.
Exporting multiplies that strength. Latino-owned exporters generate about $325,000 in revenue per employee, roughly 3.5 times that of Latino-owned nonexporters.
Several food companies already prove the model. Quirch Foods started in Miami in 1967 as a family-owned importer of Latino staples. Today, it generates more than $4 billion in annual sales across 40 states, the Caribbean and Latin America. Its import relationships later opened doors to domestic meat and seafood producers. Now Quirch ships more than 100 containers a week globally.
Likewise, Latino-founded Source Logistics built its growth strategy around reaching Latino households, especially for food and beverage. The company operates 5.8 million square feet of warehousing. It reaches 80 percent of the U.S. Latino population with same-day delivery.
Distribution Gaps Limit Latin American Trade on Store Shelves
Still, products do not always reach the shoppers who want them. About 75 percent of corridor trade moves through leading hubs that reach only around 16 percent of U.S. Latinos.
As a result, some large Latino markets remain poorly connected. Los Angeles and Las Vegas, for instance, have sizable Latino populations but comparatively low levels of Latin American imports. McKinsey sees room there to expand sourcing and distribution.
In contrast, strong logistics links pay off. Among cities with similarly sized Latino populations, those with stronger ties to Latin American entry ports show around three to four times greater availability of imported goods. Tampa, Florida, offers one example, having built a niche in cold-chain and food distribution.
Barriers that Hold Latino Businesses Back
Despite these advantages, five obstacles slow progress: limited capital, narrow distribution, weak institutional coordination, an immature commercialization pipeline, and thin ownership mechanisms.
Financing stands out. More than 70 percent of Latino business owners used personal funds to launch their companies. Additionally, only 2.1 percent of Latino-owned employer firms export, compared with 2.6 percent of all U.S. employer firms.
A Roadmap for Retailers and Suppliers
So how can the food industry act? McKinsey urges large retailers and manufacturers to make Latin American trade part of their core growth strategy, not just a marketing exercise. That means diversifying procurement channels and investing in supplier development.
Investors also have a role, especially in designing capital for trade-focused firms with long cash cycles. Local governments, in turn, can align workforce programs with corridor needs such as customs brokerage and logistics.
Finally, the authors caution that tariffs, inflation, and shifting trade agreements could affect results. Nevertheless, they argue the corridor already holds the ingredients for growth. What it lacks is an integrated system that helps Latino businesses scale what already works.