For decades, regional supermarkets in the United States competed with an advantage no giant could take away: being just a few blocks from the customer. That advantage is weakening. A report by Coresight Research, published on August 10, 2026, warns that on-demand shopping is diluting proximity as a competitive factor and forcing local supermarkets to rethink their business model.
The firm analyzed consumer surveys, Census data, and results from major chains. Its conclusion: delivery in less than two hours is no longer just for urgent needs. It now competes with supermarkets for weekly grocery shopping.
The Doorstep: The New Point of Sale
The reasoning is simple. If a delivery person brings milk, bread, and vegetables to the doorstep in 30 minutes, the neighborhood supermarket loses its main appeal. The Coresight report, authored by analyst Sujeet Naik, notes that the risk for supermarkets primarily affects perishables—which drive frequent visits—and last-minute purchases.
The numbers back up this assessment. In the 2026 annual survey, 37.9% of those who buy groceries online said they made “most” or “all or almost all” of those purchases via express delivery. Furthermore, home delivery outpaces in-store pickup by 35.5 percentage points—the widest gap in the firm’s historical data series.
From Necessity to Habit
DoorDash confirms the trend. Mike Goldblatt, the platform’s vice president of Business Partnerships, told Coresight that many customers initially turned to the service out of immediate need, but over time it became routine. Today, they shop more frequently and fill larger shopping carts. According to the executive, the industry is stabilizing around 30- to 40-minute delivery windows—a pace that consumers still perceive as fast and that offers a more sustainable business model.
For regional supermarkets, this means their window for responding is narrowing. The report does not set a specific deadline, but it warns that treating fast delivery solely as a convenience service underestimates its role in the overall shopping experience.
If a delivery driver brings milk, bread, and vegetables to the door in 30 minutes, the neighborhood supermarket loses its main appeal.
The Scale Gap Facing Supermarkets
However, for supermarkets, adapting comes at a cost. Walmart reported that more than 36% of its home delivery orders in the first fiscal quarter arrived in less than three hours, and by May 2026, it was already offering 30-minute or faster delivery in 33 markets. Target reported a more than 27% rise in same-day delivery sales. Amazon, for its part, expanded its Amazon Now service to new cities.
Penetration rates reflect the gap: 59.2% of online shoppers used Walmart in the past 12 months, and 45.1% used Amazon. Kroger, the best-positioned among traditional supermarkets, barely reached 16.8%. Coresight also warns that relying on external platforms can pressure margins and reduce control over customer data.
A Two-Speed Market for Supermarkets?
A socioeconomic dimension adds to this. A 2025 Coresight survey found that 37.3% of consumers with incomes of $100,000 or more regularly pay for expedited delivery, compared to 19.7% of the rest. At the same time, cumulative inflation, rising fuel prices, and cuts to the SNAP program are pushing other households to prioritize price.
The report does not mention a two-tiered market, but it does foresee polarization between value-driven purchases and health-driven purchases. Supermarkets that cater to one or both will have better prospects.
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The Challenge of AI
Another front is advancing in parallel. Coresight Research believes AI-powered shopping assistants could shift competition from the supermarket shelf to the assistant to whom consumers delegate their decisions.
Walmart reported that users of Sparky, its shopping assistant, generate orders that are about 35% higher than those of other users. The firm describes this shift as a multi-year transformation, still in its early stages, and advises supermarkets to invest in proprietary tools sooner rather than later.
Consolidation on the Horizon
Consequently, financial pressure is mounting. The report anticipates that the investment required to sustain a profitable e-commerce business will become increasingly difficult for small supermarket chains, leading to partnerships, market exits, and mergers.
Kroger’s acquisition of Giant Eagle, announced in July 2026 and scheduled to close in 2027, illustrates this dynamic.
What Supermarkets Offer That Online Shopping Can’t
In this context, brick-and-mortar supermarkets must earn every visit. Coresight proposes four actions:
- An engaging in-store experience.
- Differentiation in fresh produce.
- Local products.
- Helpful service.
Consumer data supports this. Among those who do not plan to buy groceries online, 54% prefer to see and select products in person, and 50.5% enjoy shopping in-store.
Likewise, the firm recommends that traditional supermarket chains return to their core specialty, retail, with stronger private-label brands, better staff, and store renovations.
The Key Move
Which step yields the greatest return? The study does not point to a single action. Still, its central recommendation is to expand the fast-delivery assortment beyond convenience items to include fresh produce, essential household goods, and the full weekly grocery haul.
In other words, the regional supermarket needs to bring its proximity, which the map no longer guarantees, directly to the customer’s doorstep.