Grocery sales volume slipped again in early fall as U.S. shoppers guarded their food budgets. Dollar sales still grew. Yet those gains came mostly from prices and product mix, not from fuller carts.
Retail food and beverage dollar sales rose 1.3% in the four weeks ending Oct. 4, according to Circana’s U.S. CPG Demand Signals report, which the market research firm released Oct. 23. Over the same stretch, volume fell 0.4% from a year earlier.
That gap captures the bind supermarkets face. Retailers need growth, but their customers now shop with more discipline. Circana found that consumers keep cutting waste and extras while protecting quality. They also juggle price tiers, pack sizes, and private label options.
Grocery Sales Volume Stays Under Pressure as Confidence Sinks
Economic strain explains much of that caution. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index dropped to 46.3 in its preliminary October reading, the report noted. Lower-income households and those with smaller stock portfolios posted the steepest declines. The final October figure later came in at 48.0, still a five-month low, according to Trading Economics.
Meanwhile, energy costs continue to squeeze household budgets. Gasoline averaged $4.47 per gallon as of Oct. 12, based on U.S. Energy Information Administration data. Consumer prices climbed 3.7% year over year in September. Unemployment, meanwhile, edged up to 4.2%.
As a result, the pullback reached well beyond the grocery aisle. Restaurant traffic dropped 0.7% in the month ending Sept. 27, even as foodservice dollar sales advanced 3.6%. Fast casual chains remained a bright spot. Non-food CPG units, by comparison, slid 1.9%.
Produce Recovers Slowly After the Cyclospora Outbreak
Fresh produce added to the strain. Produce volume declined 1.5% in the latest four weeks. Still, that trend improved 1.6 percentage points from the prior 13 weeks. Excluding produce, total food and beverage volume dipped just 0.2%.
The damage traces back to mid-July. That month, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the Food and Drug Administration and state officials opened an investigation into a multistate Cyclospora outbreak tied to iceberg lettuce in 15 states.
Salads and leafy greens took the hardest hit. Circana data show their weekly volume plunged nearly 30% in late July. By the week ending Oct. 4, the decline had narrowed to about 13%. Fresh fruit, meanwhile, stayed down roughly 5%.
Shopper attitudes could stretch out the recovery. In a Circana survey fielded Aug. 7-11, 83% of consumers said they knew about produce recalls, and 58% voiced concern. Just over half expected to resume normal produce purchases within three months. Another 15%, however, said they did not plan to return.
Instead, many households found substitutes. Frozen and shelf-stable fruits and vegetables picked up slight gains, while some shoppers built new eating occasions altogether. For fresh departments, the task now involves winning back trips, not simply restocking shelves.
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Price Inflation Cools While Shoppers Trade Up
On pricing, the report offers some relief. Food and beverage price per volume rose 1.7% in the latest four weeks, down from 1.9% in the third quarter. Average item prices contributed 0.9 percentage points of that increase. Product mix supplied the other 0.8 points.
High-inflation categories are cooling fastest. Average beef item prices slipped 0.5% from a year ago, following a 6% jump in 2025. Coffee prices rose 2.5%, far below last year’s 11.4% surge. Chocolate candy, by contrast, still rose 7.3%.
Even so, costs continue to weigh on suppliers. Circana pointed to rising supply expenses, particularly freight. Many manufacturers, it added, now pursue productivity gains to limit future price hikes.
In non-food aisles, the trade-up trend runs even stronger. Non-food CPG dollar sales grew 3% despite falling units. Price per unit rose 5%, driven mainly by product mix, because item price inflation stayed below 1% on average. Personal care led all segments with 5.4% dollar growth.
Income continues to shape those choices. Low- and middle-income households still trail high-income shoppers in non-food spending growth, according to Circana’s receipt panel.
Online Orders And Store Brands Gain Ground
Channel performance now separates winners from laggards. E-commerce food and beverage sales across Circana’s MULO+ outlets jumped 15.5%. Brick-and-mortar stores, meanwhile, fell 2.8%. Convenience stores lost even more ground, sliding 3.5%.
Store brands also held up better. Private brands gained 0.3% in food and beverage, while national brands slipped 1.1%.
Non-food categories showed a similar online pattern, with e-commerce up 15.3% and physical stores down 5%. Unlike in food, though, private brands dropped 7.6% in that segment.
Where Supermarkets Can Still Find Growth
Taken together, the data describe a shopper who spends with intent. Households still pay for quality. Yet they buy fewer items and skip the extras. Consequently, supermarkets cannot count on volume to lift results this fall.
Rather, the openings lie in sharper digital execution, stronger private label programs and fresh departments that rebuild trust. Retailers that help shoppers stretch budgets without giving up quality stand the best chance of turning caution into loyalty.