Retail sales continued to grow in November, putting the 2021 holiday season on the home stretch for record spending, despite inflation, supply chain disruptions, and COVID-19, the National Retail Federation (NRF) said.
According to NRF statistics, November retail sales saw a 14% increase year-over-year.
Regarding food and beverage purchases, NRF data revealed a 1.3% increase in grocery and beverage store sales in November and an 8.8% increase compared to 2020.
“We expect demand will remain strong through December, even though consumers started holiday shopping earlier than ever this year,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “Despite the rise of the omicron variant, increased vaccination rates combined with retailers’ ongoing safety protocols and procedures have resulted in consumers who feel they can continue to shop safely and conveniently. We believe that holiday sales this year could grow as much as 11.5 percent over 2020.”
The U.S. Census Bureau said overall retail sales in November were up 0.3 percent seasonally adjusted from October and up 18.2 percent year-over-year. That compares with increases of 1.8 percent month-over-month and 16.3 percent year-over-year in October. According to Census data, despite occasional month-over-month declines, sales have grown year-over-year every month since June 2020.
Meanwhile, NRF chief economist Jack Kleinhenz said consumers continued to spend in November, building on the momentum of early solid holiday shopping in October and setting the stage for a busy holiday season.
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“While seasonally adjusted numbers may make the results look modest, seasonal patterns have been significantly disrupted by the pandemic, and unadjusted data shows November’s sales as calculated by NRF were actually the highest on record,” added Kleinhenz.
Consumers have shopped earlier than ever this year. Still, NRF defines the holiday season as of November 1 through December 31, so the November results mark the completion of the first half of the official season.
NRF currently expects that 2021 holiday sales during the two months could grow as much as 11.5 percent over 2020, exceeding NRF’s earlier forecast of between 8.5 percent and 10.5 percent growth. Even at the low end of the range, the amount spent and the growth rate would set new records.
NRF’s calculation of retail sales – which excludes automobile dealers, gasoline stations, and restaurants to focus on core retail – showed November was unchanged from October but up 14.8 percent unadjusted year-over-year. That compares with increases of 1.8 percent month-over-month and 10.6 percent year-over-year in October. NRF’s numbers were up 12.1 percent unadjusted year-over-year on a three-month moving average.
November retail sales were up in all but three categories every month and were up across the board year-over-year, led by increases at clothing, sporting goods, and furniture stores. Specifics from key sectors include:
- Clothing and clothing accessory stores were up 0.5 percent month-over-month seasonally adjusted and up 35.3 percent unadjusted year-over-year.
- Sporting goods stores were up 1.3 percent month-over-month seasonally adjusted and up 22.1 percent unadjusted year-over-year.
- Furniture and home furnishings stores were unchanged month-over-month seasonally adjusted but up 18.6 percent unadjusted year-over-year.
- Electronics and appliance stores were down 4.6 percent month-over-month seasonally adjusted but up 17.7 percent unadjusted year-over-year.
- Online and other non-store sales were unchanged month-over-month seasonally adjusted but up 15.1 percent unadjusted year-over-year.
- General merchandise stores were down 1.2 percent month-over-month seasonally adjusted but up 14.2 percent unadjusted year-over-year.
- Building materials and garden supply stores were up 0.7 percent month-over-month seasonally adjusted and up 12.2 percent unadjusted year-over-year.
- Health and personal care stores were down 0.6 percent month-over-month seasonally adjusted but up 9.1 percent unadjusted year-over-year.
- Grocery and beverage stores were up 1.3 percent month-over-month seasonally adjusted and up 8.8 percent unadjusted year-over-year.