2027 will bring new regulations for retailers in the USA, particularly regarding product tariffs, wages, and the federal food assistance program (SNAP).
The key is to start preparing now for these changes. That’s why this guide provides information to help you adapt your operations before the new rules take effect.
You’ll find everything from industry experts’ projections to the regulations that will affect store owners, grocery stores, and supermarkets. Let’s take a closer look.
Table of contents
- Sales Outlook for Retailers in the USA
- Consumers Are Divided and Paying Close Attention to Prices
- Online Shopping Continues to Gain Ground
- Tariffs: What Has Changed and What’s Still Pending
- SNAP Rules That Will Change the Day-to-Day Operations of Stores
- Wages and Staffing Costs for 2027
- Get Your Business Ready for a Challenging 2027
Sales Outlook for Retailers in the USA
Before planning for the coming year, consider the official figures. Overall, American consumers are spending cautiously, depending on their income levels.
What the National Retail Federation Projects
According to this organization, retail sales in the USA will grow by 4.4% in 2026, reaching $5.6 trillion. That’s above the 3.6% average recorded over the past ten years.
It’s worth noting that this average excludes the unusual pandemic period (2020 to 2022), restaurants, car dealerships, and gas stations.
Although the National Retail Federation (NRF) will publish its official 2027 forecast in the spring, other industry analyses are already providing insight into the market outlook.
For example, insurance company Allianz Trade expects sales to remain stable this year and next, alongside overall economic growth of approximately 2%.
The Holiday Season Provides the First Boost
This season’s sales set the foundation for starting 2027. According to the NRF, sales in November and December will increase by 4.2%, reaching $1.013 trillion.
In 2025, the increase was smaller, closing at 3.1% with revenue of $972 billion. This performance will give stores more money to invest.
In fact, between 325,000 and 375,000 temporary hires are expected as retailers remain optimistic about demand, despite consumers keeping a close eye on their budgets.
Consumers Are Divided and Paying Close Attention to Prices
The most important thing for 2027 is knowing who’s buying from you. Not all households have the same purchasing power, and that difference is reflected in sales.
A K-Shaped Economy
Industry analysts describe two opposing realities. While higher-income customers continue shopping without major concerns, lower-income consumers are watching their spending more closely.
According to the retail trade association, the highest-income segment is driving nearly all the growth. This is forcing local stores to change their product offerings.
Adding to this challenge is projected goods inflation of 2.5% for 2026, excluding food and energy, compared with 1.6% last year.
Fewer SNAP Participants
Regarding food assistance benefits, the program lost nearly 13% of its beneficiaries between 2025 and 2026, according to information from the USDA.
Last April, more than 37 million people received this assistance. As the number of customers using EBT cards declines, stores need to offer more promotions on essential products.
Online Shopping Continues to Gain Ground
Another change that retailers in the USA should not ignore is the growth of e-commerce. Most quarterly spending is concentrated in online purchases.
What the Census Bureau Data Shows
According to the Census Bureau, online sales reached $340.2 billion between April and June 2026. This represents 17.1% of total consumer spending.
Additionally, e-commerce grew by 12.2% over that 12-month period, nearly twice the growth rate of the entire retail sector, which increased by 6.7%.
How to Compete Without a Large Online Store
You don’t need a complex website to enter the digital marketplace. A few simple adjustments to your business can help attract customers who handle everything from their phones. For example:
- Enable orders through WhatsApp or by phone for quick purchases.
- Offer in-store pickup without waiting in line.
- Partner with delivery apps to reach more neighborhoods.
- Publish your prices online so customers can compare them.
- Keep your inventory updated to avoid selling products that are already out of stock.
Tariffs: What Has Changed and What’s Still Pending
When it comes to import taxes, retailers in the USA pay duties on every item they bring in from abroad. These charges also affect the prices consumers pay.
The Supreme Court Ruling
In February 2026, the nation’s highest court clarified that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not authorize the U.S. president to impose tariffs.
In other words, it struck down the additional duties imposed on China, Canada, and Mexico under the justification of economic emergencies or fentanyl-related concerns. However, tariffs on steel, aluminum, and copper remain in effect.
The Court of International Trade also ordered Customs in March to refund all amounts collected on those imports with pending customs procedures.
New Tariffs and Ongoing Refunds
Despite the Supreme Court’s decision, retailers in the USA are still paying import duties. The government turned to another law to impose a 10% global tariff with a 150-day limit.
When that deadline expired in July 2026, it replaced the new charge with another tariff under Section 301, which has already faced lawsuits in federal trade court.
Therefore, the outlook for 2027 remains uncertain. It’s best to consult your customs broker to determine whether your international purchases qualify for refunds and how tariffs affect your prices.
SNAP Rules That Will Change the Day-to-Day Operations of Stores
If you accept food assistance benefits, the USDA will introduce changes starting in 2027. These will require operational adjustments affecting inventory, checkout systems, and employee training.
More Variety Required in Store Inventory
Although the rule was approved in July, compliance has been mandatory since November. Each store must now display seven varieties of food and three units from each category:
- Fruits and vegetables: Fresh, frozen, or canned.
- Dairy: Milk, cheese, yogurt, and similar products.
- Protein: Meat, poultry, and fish.
- Grains: Oatmeal, bread, tortillas, rice, or pasta.
Monitoring products with short expiration dates every week is the best way to implement this requirement in 2027. This helps you avoid penalties and losses from expired merchandise.
State Restrictions on Soda and Candy
On the other hand, the USDA authorized 23 states to prohibit SNAP benefits from being used to purchase these types of products. However, a court overturned the waivers in five of those states.
Despite that ruling, the measure remains in effect in regions such as Kansas, where it will begin at the start of the year. Wyoming will also activate its own rules in February.
To comply in 2027, retailers must program their checkout systems accordingly or risk losing their SNAP authorization. This adjustment will cost $1.56 billion, according to a NACS study.
Wages and Staffing Costs for 2027
Payroll is the biggest expense for retailers in the USA. That’s why it’s important to review upcoming local wage increases now, before the new year begins.
Minimum Wage Increases
The federal minimum wage has remained frozen at $7.25 per hour for 17 years. However, most states set their own minimum wages each year.
Michigan, for example, will raise its minimum wage to $15 in January 2027. At the same time, many cities and counties will implement local increases based on inflation.
States that make these adjustments announce the new wage rates in the fall. If you have employees in multiple locations, review each situation before finalizing your budget.
How to Plan Next Year’s Payroll
For businesses operating on tight profit margins, absorbing wage increases is difficult. That’s why it’s important to anticipate these costs and take steps to offset them:
- Calculate the annual cost by multiplying the increase by your team’s working hours.
- Adjust shifts to have more employees working during peak sales hours.
- Update prices on products with lower profit margins.
- Train employees to handle multiple tasks and provide better coverage during busy hours.
- Review new state tax and labor regulations with an accountant.
Get Your Business Ready for a Challenging 2027
Ultimately, the coming year will bring stable sales, but new costs and regulations will make operations more challenging. Retailers in the USA who start running the numbers now will have an advantage.
The priority is to organize SNAP inventory, hiring, and payroll. Once these areas are covered, you can continue following these changes through the news and analysis published by Abasto.