Total eGrocery Sales Surge to $27.4 Billion in the Third Quarter

Online grocery sales in the U.S. experienced robust growth in the third quarter of 2024 (3Q24), with total sales rising by 13.8% to $27.4 billion compared to $24.0 billion for the same period in 2023. According to the U.S. eGrocery Market Share Report—3Q24, powered by data from the monthly Brick Meets Click/Mercatus Grocery Shopping Survey, this increase was largely propelled by significant year-over-year growth in delivery.

All three receiving methods—Delivery, Ship-to-Home, and Pickup—contributed to the overall growth for 3Q24, but to varying degrees. Ship-to-home posted a gain of 15%, and Pickup gained approximately 5%. Most of the increase was driven by Delivery, which had 25% year-over-year sales growth after posting a nearly 6% decline during the prior year.

“The strong 3Q24 results for eGrocery underscore the importance of strengthening the customer value proposition to align better with the evolving expectations associated with shopping online for groceries,” said David Bishop, partner at Brick Meets Click. “Mass, and Walmart in particular, have demonstrated the value of better understanding online shoppers’ preferences while also leveraging its vast store network and digital reach to grow faster than the overall market.”

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Regarding overall eGrocery sales, the Mass format continued to gain market share, driven by the Delivery and Ship-to-Home segments, as Supermarkets wrestled with ongoing declines. In Delivery, Mass increased its sales share by 390 basis points year-over-year, reaching 52.7% in 3Q24, while Supermarkets slid 250 basis points to just under 38%.

Mass also improved its position in the Ship-to-Home segment, growing its share by 150 basis points to 16.4%, mainly at the expense of Amazon, which finished at 50.1%, down 100 basis points from the previous year. For Pickup, Mass’ share slipped slightly as it fell 70 bps versus 3Q23, capturing 56.1% of the method’s overall sales, likely due to Walmart’s membership push that is boosting demand for Delivery.

The monthly active user (MAU) base, which includes all methods and retail formats, grew from 54% last year to 56% this year, helping to drive eGrocery’s sales gains. In addition, the proportion of MAUs that spent 25% or more of their weekly grocery budget online increased by over three percentage points versus 3Q23.

Mass Formats Gaining Terrain in eGrocery Sales

The share of total grocery spending going online also resumed its upward trajectory, climbing to 14.6% in 3Q24 after pulling back in 3Q23. The combined share that Pickup and Delivery contributed to eGrocery sales increased by 110 basis points over the previous year, finishing 3Q24 at 12.0%.

Although the likelihood of customers reusing the same Delivery service has declined over the past three years across both Mass retailers and Supermarkets, the gap between customers’ intent to order again has widened across the two formats. This gap expanded from 5.5 points in 3Q22 to 10.2 points in 3Q24 in favor of Mass.

Besides the ongoing financial pressures that likely motivate many households to continue using Mass, another causal factor may be related to the first-party delivery experience offered by Mass retailers like Walmart.

The challenges will likely continue for Supermarkets as a larger share of their MAUs choose to cross-shop for groceries online from Mass. In 3Q24, one-third of Supermarket MAUs also shopped at Mass retailers during the same month, reflecting an increase of 130 basis points from the prior year and more than double the rate in 2019 when it was under 15%.

“To compete effectively against giants like Walmart, Supermarkets must deepen their customer connections and enhance their service,” said Mark Fairhurst, Chief Growth Officer at Mercatus. “Leveraging customer insights is crucial for creating personalized experiences and offering targeted savings to customers — but that’s only possible when retailers can effectively operationalize the data.”

Looking across the monthly results for 3Q24, online grocery sales totaled $7.9 billion in July, $9.9 billion in August, and $9.5 billion in September 2024, which had very strong year-over-year growth compared to last year due to significant gains by Delivery.

Although September’s total monthly sales were lower than in August, the decline was smaller than expected based on seasonal eGrocery sales patterns, which Brick Meets Click estimated based on monthly eGrocery sales over the last four years. The strong results are likely due to the recent promotional activity by many Delivery service providers to build enrollment in their respective membership or subscription programs.