Retail executives in Latin America are regaining confidence in the economy, but they remain wary of prices. Forty-one percent of senior consumer and retail leaders in 21 countries expect their national economy to improve, according to Grupo Ohla’s VII Latin American Survey of Consumer and Retail Executives, released Oct. 8. At the same time, 57% anticipate new price increases over the next six months.
These signals matter beyond the region. Latin America supplies a key share of the fresh fruits and vegetables that reach U.S. supermarkets. As a result, American buyers, importers and food manufacturers have reason to track business sentiment south of the border closely.
Uneven optimism across markets
The regional picture shows nuance. Besides the 41% expecting improvement, 40% of respondents foresee stability, and 19% anticipate a decline.
Peru tops the list. There, 79% of executives expect an economic rebound. Chile (53%), Argentina (47%) and Colombia (45%) follow. Mexico, by contrast, leans toward caution: 64% of its executives project a stable economy.
The jump from the previous survey stands out. In Peru, the share of optimists rose from 30% to 79%. Chile climbed from 18% to 53%. Colombia, meanwhile, advanced from 17% to 45%.
Retail in Latin America: Prices keep rising
Still, confidence coexists with inflationary pressure. Regionally, 57% of respondents expect higher prices in the coming six months. That expectation reaches 68% in Chile, 67% in Mexico and 60% in Colombia. Peru again stands apart: 71% of its executives anticipate stable prices.
Profitability doesn’t paint a uniform picture either. Thirty-eight percent of Latin American leaders project stable margins this year. Another 35% expect improvement, while 27% fear a decline. Peru again stands out, with 67% positive expectations, followed by Mexico (44%). Argentina sits at the opposite extreme: 63% foresee a decrease and just 5% see an increase.
“This edition shows a region where greater confidence in the economic outlook is re-emerging, but where companies continue to face very concrete challenges in terms of prices, profitability and consumption,” said Antonio Mönckeberg, CEO of Grupo Ohla.
What it means for U.S. supermarkets
The link to the U.S. market runs mainly through fresh produce. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service (ERS), imports accounted for 60% of fresh fruit availability in 2021 and 38% of fresh vegetable availability. In 2022, Mexico supplied 51% of the value of fresh fruit imports and 69% of fresh vegetable imports.
That weight makes Mexico a central player for fresh departments. And in that space, two out of three executives expect price increases. One caveat: the survey measures perceptions of domestic markets, not export prices. Even so, it offers a useful clue for purchasing teams negotiating with suppliers in the region.
The domestic backdrop also demands attention. In its Sept. 25 forecast, the ERS projected that food-at-home prices will rise 2.4% in 2026. For fresh vegetables, the agency estimates a 5.7% increase, above its 20-year historical average.
Related Article: Why Grocery Affordability Is No Longer the Right Metric
Inflation, consumption and artificial intelligence
Which factors will weigh most on retail in Latin America? Executives first pointed to inflation and cost pressure (21%). Next came global economic uncertainty (16%). Falling consumption and political instability tied at 14% each. The advance of artificial intelligence also made the list, at 9%.
Describing today’s consumer, executives highlighted greater price sensitivity and the search for value (19%). Second, they cited a better-informed shopper who compares options (17%). Finally, they noted weaker brand loyalty (12%).
In-store execution still rules
Despite the digital boom, the physical point of sale remains the leading touchpoint. Shelf and in-store execution rank as the most decisive touchpoint (38%). Attention from salespeople or advisers follows (15%). Together, they account for 53% of responses.
However, executing well on the shelf has its obstacles. Respondents cited a lack of real-time visibility into what happens in stores (15%). They also mentioned difficulty measuring that execution’s impact on sales (13%) and poor integration among sales, trade marketing, and marketing teams (12%).
In parallel, several trends are transforming organizations. The growth of marketplaces and digital platforms ranks first (17%). Behind it come social media’s influence on conversion and the use of advanced data, both at 15%. Omnichannel integration and artificial intelligence each register 13%.
Challenges to growing in the region
Lastly, the survey explored expansion hurdles. Adapting to local consumers’ culture, habits, and language tops the list (14%). Next come managing prices and profitability across markets (13%) and regulatory differences (12%). Access to large retail chains and distribution channels (11%) and logistical complexity (10%) round out the list.
These findings on retail in Latin America interest U.S. brands with plans to expand south. They also offer clues to Latin American suppliers seeking space on U.S. shelves.
Grupo Ohla has conducted this survey since 2022 among senior marketing and sales executives. The firm, which describes itself as the largest marketing, sales, and omnichannel retail management services conglomerate in Latin America, operates in 22 countries and employs about 60,000 people a year. Its clients include Nestlé, P&G, PepsiCo, and Cencosud.