Thanksgiving is just around the corner, and families across the U.S. are preparing to host traditional gatherings despite inflationary pressures on groceries. According to Circana’s annual Thanksgiving Outlook, nearly 80% of consumers plan to keep with the usual Thanksgiving customs, with many trying to keep budgets balanced while hosting memorable meals.
Though inflation rates have slowed, grocery costs remain high, and many households will see an increase in their Thanksgiving grocery bills.
Circana’s data shows that prices for Thanksgiving essentials have risen by 26% since 2020, with a 2% uptick just this year. Despite these challenges, 34% of shoppers plan to spend more this Thanksgiving, underscoring a solid commitment to tradition.
Early Deals Appeal to Budget-Savvy Shoppers
To combat higher costs, 38% of consumers turn to early Thanksgiving shopping to secure deals on key ingredients, with young families especially proactive in looking for discounts.
“Thanksgiving offers a unique opportunity for retailers to connect with consumers who value tradition but are mindful of rising costs,” said Joan Driggs, vice president of content and thought leadership at Circana.
For businesses, focusing on promotions that blend convenience with value can drive more robust sales, helping customers prepare satisfying meals without stretching their budgets.
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Retailers Face Pressure to Balance Promotions with Profits
For retailers, Thanksgiving is one of the busiest food shopping periods of the year, second only to Christmas, with a $2.4 billion lift in sales during 2023.
Circana’s report reveals that last year’s Thanksgiving baskets saw a significant uptick in promotions, with nearly 50% of items sold on discount. However, despite this increase, retailers maintained similar average discounts across the board.
Promotional activity plays a significant role in shaping consumer choices, with turkeys often offered as loss leaders. This approach encourages shoppers to add more high-margin items to their baskets, offsetting the initial discount.
Yet the USDA’s feature activity index points to a drop in turkey promotions over recent years, suggesting that holiday pricing strategies may be shifting to include other discounted items.
Turkey Remains Key, but Alternatives Are Rising for Thanksgiving
Turkey has long held the role of Thanksgiving’s main attraction, and despite new trends, it continues to dominate the table. This year’s favorable pricing on whole turkeys—backed by a 4% increase in available stocks—means shoppers should have no trouble finding turkeys at prices more affordable than in recent years. However, as CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange notes, shifts in consumer tastes could impact turkey’s role in future Thanksgivings.
One notable trend is the slow decline in demand for whole turkeys. With many consumers prioritizing convenience, beef and pork brands have taken the opportunity to position their products as appealing holiday options.
CoBank’s Brian Earnest, an economist specializing in animal proteins, sees this as a response to changing preferences: “Some consumers only think about cooking a whole turkey once a year. Brands are now working to capture a bigger share of Thanksgiving protein purchases.”
While whole turkeys may see declining demand, other turkey products are gaining popularity. Ground turkey, for example, has seen retail volume sales grow by 5.5% this year, reaching $1.9 billion. This increase highlights a desire for easy-to-cook options that fit well in casseroles, stuffing, or even quick weekday dinners leading up to the big meal.
Balancing Traditional Celebrations and New Trends
For many consumers, Thanksgiving remains a time to gather, indulge, and celebrate with family and friends. While some have begun opting for alternative proteins and adjusting their traditional menus, most plan to enjoy a home-cooked meal.
Circana’s data shows that 61% of Americans intend to dine at home this Thanksgiving, though slightly fewer than in recent years. This creates room for retailers to offer host-friendly items and gift options.
This year, young Millennial and Gen Z shoppers will likely have larger gatherings, averaging around ten guests—up from smaller groups seen among older generations. This trend could impact the items most in demand, with increased interest in side dishes and desserts and more options to please bigger crowds.
Tips for Savvy Thanksgiving Shopping
As shoppers prepare for Thanksgiving, taking advantage of early deals and exploring menu alternatives can help stretch budgets without sacrificing holiday joy.
Here are a few tips:
- Plan Ahead: Make a grocery list early to identify pre-holiday promotions and avoid last-minute price spikes.
- Opt for Bulk Buys: When buying pantry staples, consider purchasing in bulk or multi-packs to get more value per dollar.
- Explore Alternatives: Try ground turkey or turkey breast cuts, which are easier to prepare and can bring new flavors to traditional dishes.
Thanksgiving in 2024 offers a balance of tradition and innovation, with shoppers embracing familiar meals and new savings strategies. As consumers adapt to economic pressures, Thanksgiving remains resilient, filled with delicious food and memorable gatherings.