Food prices are expected to keep slowing in 2024, USDA projects in its Food Price Outlook for this year.
USDA’s analysis shows that year-over-year price increases continued to slow for all foods, including supermarket and restaurant purchases. Grocery store food prices were 1.3% higher in December 2023 than in December 2022.
Five supermarket food purchase categories had lower prices in December 2023 than in December 2022: eggs, fresh vegetables, fish and seafood, dairy products, and other meats.
“In 2024, prices for most food categories are predicted to change at a rate below their 20-year historical average. Prices are predicted to increase for ten grocery store food purchase categories and decrease for five categories in 2024. However, the measures of uncertainty do not rule out either an increase or decrease in prices in 2024 for most categories,” said the USDA.
In 2024, supermarket food purchase prices are predicted to decrease by 0.4 percent, with a prediction interval of -4.5 to 4.0 percent, and restaurant food prices are expected to increase by 4.7 percent, with a prediction interval of 3.1 to 6.2 percent.
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According to the USDA, all food prices are predicted to increase by 1.3 percent in 2024, with a prediction interval of -1.4 to 4.2 percent.
In contrast, the Consumer Price Index for Food increased by 5.8 percent in 2023. Supermarket food purchase prices increased by 5.0 percent, and restaurant food prices increased by 7.1 percent.
While prices increased in 2023 for all food categories tracked by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Economic Research Service (ERS) except for pork, prices grew more slowly in 2023 than in 2022 for all categories.
USDA’s food price outlook estimates that in 2024, prices for most food categories are predicted to change at a rate below their 20-year historical average.
Prices are predicted to increase for ten supermarket food categories and decrease for five categories in 2024.
Forecast of Food Prices to Lower in 2024
Pork: Prices fell 1.4 percent in December 2023 due to weak demand and were up 0.1 percent from December 2022, essentially unchanged over the year. Pork prices are predicted to decrease by 1.4 percent in 2024, with a prediction interval of -9.0 to 6.9 percent.
Eggs: Retail egg prices increased 8.9 percent from November 2023 to December 2023 but were 23.8 percent below December 2022 prices. Egg prices are predicted to decrease by 4.6 percent in 2024, with a prediction interval of -20.7 to 15.4 percent. This wide prediction interval reflects the volatility in retail egg prices.
Cereals and Bakery: Prices for cereals and bakery products declined by 0.7 percent in December 2023. Prices were 2.6 percent higher than in December 2022, the lowest year-over-year increase since August 2021, partially due to higher grain production and lower prices for inputs, including fertilizer and eggs. Prices for cereals and bakery products are predicted to decrease by 1.1 percent in 2024, with a prediction interval of -5.4 to 3.5 percent.
Produce: Prices for fresh fruits and vegetables decreased 0.6 percent from November to December 2023. In 2024, prices for fresh fruits and vegetables are predicted to continue their slow growth relative to other categories from recent years. Prices for fresh fruits are expected to increase by 1.0 percent in 2024, with a prediction interval of -4.6 to 7.1 percent. Prices for fresh vegetables are predicted to decrease by 0.9 percent in 2024, with a prediction interval of -6.7 to 5.3 percent.