Consumer confidence is sliding, and for the second straight month, it’s the future, not the present, that has shoppers worried.
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index dropped 0.8 points to 89.4 in August, continuing a softening trend that should put grocery operators, distributors, and CPG suppliers on notice. While current conditions look marginally better, the forward-looking data tells a more cautious story — one with direct implications for how Hispanic supermarkets manage inventory, promotions, and pricing strategy heading into the fall.
What the Numbers Actually Say
The headline index obscures a split story. The Present Situation Index, which measures how consumers feel about current conditions, rose 6.8 points to 121.2, reversing three months of consecutive declines. That’s a meaningful improvement, driven largely by better perceptions of the labor market: the share of consumers saying jobs are “plentiful” climbed to 27.0% in August, up from 24.4% in July, according to The Conference Board.
But the Expectations Index, the forward-looking component covering income, business conditions, and employment over the next six months, fell 5.8 points to 68.2. Any reading below 80 on that index has historically signaled recession risk, and it has now been in negative territory for two consecutive months. That’s not a blip.
“The Expectations Index slipped further into negative territory,” said Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board. “Looking ahead, consumers were more pessimistic about business conditions and the labor market over the next six months.”
Food and Grocery Are Already in the Conversation
Here’s what makes this data particularly relevant for operators in the Hispanic grocery space: when consumers were asked in open-ended write-in responses to describe factors affecting their economic outlook, references to food and groceries rose in August. So did mentions of trade, jobs, and war or conflict.
This is not incidental. It reflects real anxiety at the shelf level, anxiety that operators in high-density Hispanic markets already feel through traffic patterns, basket size shifts, and the relentless pressure on center-store staples. When your core shopper is writing “food” and “groceries” in a national consumer survey as a source of economic concern, that is a signal worth heeding.
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Who’s Worried Most — and Who Isn’t
The generational breakdown offers both a caution and an opportunity. On a six-month moving-average basis, Gen Z and Millennials remain the most confident cohorts. They are also among the most likely to shop at Hispanic-format stores, particularly in urban markets. Their relative optimism may provide some cushion in categories tied to discretionary food spending: prepared foods, premium beverages, specialty imported products.
But Generation X, Baby Boomers, and the Silent Generation, who tend to favor larger basket sizes and more established shopping routines, trailed significantly in confidence. For stores that depend on older, loyalty-driven shoppers, that gap matters.
By income, higher-earning consumers remained more optimistic. That’s a reminder that value-tier private label and competitive pricing on staples aren’t just good tactics right now; they’re essential to retaining mid- and lower-income shoppers who are feeling the most pressure.
Spending Plans: Where the Cuts Are Coming
The services spending data is telling. Discretionary activity — restaurants, hotels, airfare, amusement parks — is expected to pull back after a July surge that The Conference Board attributed partly to lower gas prices and World Cup viewership. That summer spending pop is likely over.
Among durable goods, furniture and smartphones topped the list of planned purchases. Notably, TV spending plans fell the most on a six-month moving average basis.
For grocery retailers, the relevant signal is this: restaurants and bars remained the top service-spending target, suggesting that the consumer trade-down from full-service dining to fast-casual and grocery isn’t accelerating as some anticipated. Operators who positioned for a wave of cooking-at-home behavior should calibrate expectations accordingly.
The Recession Question
Consumers still perceive a low likelihood of a recession in the next 12 months — but the share saying a recession is “very likely” ticked up in August. Inflation expectations also crept higher, with approximately 61.3% of consumers anticipating higher interest rates over the next year, down only slightly from 62% in July.
For operators carrying debt on store renovations or distribution infrastructure, the interest rate outlook is not academic. And for any retailer in conversation with suppliers about forward pricing or contract terms, the inflation expectations data deserves a seat at the table.
What to Watch
The August survey was conducted August 3–16, which means it predates any market or policy developments from the second half of the month. September’s reading — particularly the Expectations Index — will be the more definitive signal of whether this is a temporary softening or the beginning of a sustained downshift in consumer sentiment.
For Hispanic grocery operators serving shoppers already navigating elevated food costs, trade uncertainty, and income pressures, the margin for error is thin. The data isn’t sounding an alarm yet. But it is telling you to keep your hand close to the dial.